My interest in the final movie awards for 2012 is keen. I prefer the Independent Spirit Awards (Saturday night) over the Oscars, but the Oscars always have the potential to be an irresisitble crack-up and therefore fun. They don't carry the weight the once did, but they still count. Most of all I like to watch the red carpet arrivals coverage that begins on a couple of cable channels at least two hours before the awards broadcast. It's such high drag. Insanely good. After that, the program is mostly just people walking on and off stage or sitting in their seats, broken up by the occasional song and dance.
This year, though, there's hope -- a tribute to James Bond at 50, plus Adele singing the nominated song from "Skyfall." But will or won't Seth McFarland get it done as host? Does it matter? If it were up to me, Ricky Gervais would host all awards shows that have movie actors in the audience. I'm cheering for McFarland, though.
What are my picks? If you care, here they are:
Best Picture - Should win: Silver Linings Playbook or Argo. (SLP should clean up at Spirit Awards)
Could win: Lincoln. Ugh. Abe Lincoln passed through a Disney-like filter. Too much schmaltz.
Best Actress - Should/Could win: Jennifer Lawrence owns this at Oscars and SLP, with Jessica Chastain a possible Oscar dark horse.
Best Actor - Should win: Bradley Cooper.
Could win: Daniel Day-Lewis. It's by rote. It's a shame, too, because while Day-Lewis is solid his is not a breakout performance.
Best Director - Should win: David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Could win: Steven Spielberg, for Lincoln, which would be a shame. If Spielberg wins it would be awesome to see him go into the audience and hand the statue to Ben Affleck.
Best Supporting Actress - I guess this belongs to Anne Hathaway, but I can't take her off-screen personality so I have no opinion.
Best Supporting Actor: For me it's a tie - Alan Arkin for Argo or Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Silver Linings Playbook
Best Original Screenplay - Django Unchained
Most Charming & Promising: Beasts of the Southern Wild. I hope it wins something.